It is 4:30 in the morning and I cannot sleep in London…I think it is mostly jet lag, but if we are being completely honest the Miami Hurricanes have more to do with it than they should.
It’s been a long road friends.
Al Golden. Randy Shannon.
Kirby Freeman. Jacory Harris.
Nevis Shapiro. Mark Emmert.
I spent a lot of it writing in this space. I wrote about moral victories. I wrote about the promise of next year. I bought in to every shitty slogan, every false positive.
The ‘Canes would start 3-0, including a win over a bad Nebraska team (or something) and the announcers would inevitably ask “is The U back?”
And every single time I convinced myself the answer was “yes,” blinded by the sort of optimism that can only be born into someone as a 13 year old ‘Canes fan in 2001.
I watched a pretty terrible set of Miami teams in the late 90s, and then one day, we were the best team the world had ever seen. It happened almost overnight.
And if it happened then, why couldn’t it happen now?
It turns out, there are a lot of reasons.
Bad coaching. Lazy administrators. NCAA malice.
And after however many Novembers in a row of watching crappy games between Georgia Tech and Duke and PRAYING that the outcomes bounced the exact right way for whatever ridiculous scenario Miami needed to get into a winnable tie break for the right to go and get slaughtered by FSU or Clemson in the ACC Championship game, and hearing that same damn “is Miami back” conversation, I just ran out of gas.
Once you’ve written every angle there is for every possible version of the same mediocrity over ten years, what else is there to say?
I was optimistic about Richt, but I had been optimistic about Shannon and Golden too. Might as well wait and see.
Well I waited, and I saw, and I am here this morning because for the first time since before I went off to college, the ‘Canes are back. Truly, legitimately “Back.” So why shouldn’t I be?
What they did the last two weekends to the 2 toughest opponents on the schedule was reminiscent of the good old days, when Syracuse and Washington came down to Miami for back to back revenge games in primetime and took hellacious beatings for their efforts.
And it feels fucking GREAT.
I watched ESPN’s Gameday in Coral Gables (!) on Saturday morning and teared up half a dozen times…not because of the images (although they were great) but because of the meaning behind this spectacle.
After 10 years of shit, we mattered again, and everyone had to recognize it.
And yet, the disrespect.
Undefeated and atop the best conference in college football, yet ranked 7th. Close wins written off as ‘lucky’ rather than ‘earned’, as they are for the Old Money.
Picked to lose by every single pundit (except my boy Des).
There is one inescapable fact about this team, though; they don’t rattle easy. The longer the odds, the better they play. There is no occasion they cannot rise to.
A real, actual hurricane shut down campus and their season for 2 weeks. They spent one of those weeks huddled in Orlando. They won 4 straight games against ACC teams by a total of 18 points, including a walk off win on the road against FSU just when they thought they had beaten us for an eighth straight year.
Those struggles paved the way for a team which is now, it can truly be said, perhaps the best in the country, with a resume second to none and truly EXCITING PLAYERS, that have been in close games and learned how to win, with new heroes emerging every week.
Braxton Berrios. JaQuan Johnson. Chad Thomas. Malik Rosier. RJ McIntosh and Kendrick Norton. Chris Herndon. Trent Harris. Mark Walton. McDermott and Darling. Those guys were all here for the bad years with Golden. They know what that looked like, and it has molded them. In many ways, there are the fans facsimile on the field…they made it through, and now they are basking in the glory of playing up to their abilities.
Ahmmon Richards. Joe Jackson. Trajan Bandy. Jon Garvin. Shaq Quarterman. Mike Pinckney. Jeff Thomas. Deejay Dallas. Travis Homer. Malek Young. Zach McCloud.Those guys came in expecting to win, without the baggage of the Golden Era, and they are already setting the tone for the next era of dominance upon which we are embarking.
Darrell Langham. Michael Jackson. Hayden Mahoney. Malik Rosier. These guys were all transfer candidates, written off as dead weight. Each has come through with legendary moments this season, to the point that we can’t imagine this team without them.
This is quickly becoming my favorite ‘Canes team of all time. They are good, and they know it, and they aren’t afraid to clap back at their critics in this age of social media.
They are sick of old, dumb stereotypes being applied…but if you insist, they will play into them on the field, where it matters.
And the fans are more than happy to reward excellence, making a stadium an hour from campus feel almost as electric as the Orange Bowl at its peak.
Most of the students there don’t get it. But there are a ton of people from that Saturday night crowd that remember the Orange Bowl. They were there for every minute of the 58-0 loss to Clemson two years ago.
And I guarantee you they feel exactly the same way I do…cathartic. There have almost certainly been a lot of grown man ugly tears shed the past few days. And who can blame them?
One final thing: I was afraid writing this would be a jinx, but my friend said it best: “I think we’re beyond that at this point.”
He's right.
We're BACK.
STEIN ON THE SIDELINES
At Least There's Shade
Tuesday, November 14, 2017
Friday, December 23, 2016
College Football Relegation - 2016
This is the final entry in my series on relegation in college football, bringing us up to current.
In
the first season of the Mark Richt Era, the Hurricanes were a Top 25 team based
on F/+ but the success on the field was open to interpretation. One the one
hand, the ‘Canes outscored their opponent by double digits in all 8 wins and
were within a score of winning in 3 of the 4 losses. Read that way, this team
was unlucky and could easily have been 11-1 heading into the conference
championship game.
On
the other hand, before the season started everyone on the planet circled the 4
games stretch of FSU-UNC- Virginia Tech- Notre Dame as the most important of
the season, and Miami lost all 4 games.
My
personal read is that Richt struggled with something we see a lot of English
Premiere League coaches…even the great ones, like Jose Mourinho and Pep
Guardiola currently…struggle with in their first year at a club: how do you
find the proper on-field alignment to accommodate the prior coach’s players
while at the same time implementing your future system?
That’s
all well and good, and an optimistic read on the situation, but I don’t think
Miami would have been any better off in the Big 10 this season. Ohio State,
Michigan, Ped State and Wisconsin were all kickass teams this season, and Iowa, Pitt, Arkansas and Nebraska were tough in their own right. On top of that, mediocre teams like
Michigan State and Northwestern are always well coached, and when you are in a
transition period…as Miami was…coaching matters. To wit: there were only 4
coaches on the ‘Canes schedule this year I would put at or near the level of
Mark Richt, and Miami lost to all 4 of them.
Elsewhere
in FBS, this was the first time we saw a true tire fire at the bottom of the
SEC, while the ACC saw Ohio and Cincinnati battle to the death. Arizona was relegated
for the first time, while Bowling Green and Marshall saw their way out.
On
the other hand, Colorado had a massive resurgence and finished the regular
season ranked in the Top 10, which would have been enough to easily win them
promotion out of the Mountain West. Western Michigan dominated the MAC and finished
undefeated, with wins over Big 10 schools Northwesten and Illinois confirming
their ability to play with the big boys. Memphis won a surprisingly tough
competition against Tulsa, Louisiana Tech, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest to win
our version of Conference USA, and Appalachian State won promotion roughly 5
years after joining FBS. Washington State came out of the at-large playoff,
knocking off Troy and then Minnesota.
In
the expansion draft, the SEC grabs Memphis, the Big 10 gets a big win by
replacing Bowling Green with Colorado, the ACC gets Appalachian State, the Pac
12 reclaims Washington State and the Big 12 gets a surprisingly still-PJ
Fleck-coached Western Michigan.
---
And
that, my friends, brings us to the end of this experiment.
Going
back to our original questions, how different does college football look? A LOT
is pretty much the same. The core of these conferences didn’t really change; no
surprise. Sure, you get your big names here and there that drop off, but
whether through a flaw in this experiment or personal bias or the reality of
the conference setup, most of them end up back home. The biggest points of
controversy would have been the fluky promotions, which again, are completely
on-brand for college football, the silliest sport ever created.
Did
this system help the little guys that earned it? In the EPL, about 40% of teams
that are promoted stay up for more than one season. In this experiment, it was
actually more like 55%....these numbers don't square up, but then again, the
gap between the teams at the bottom of the BCS conferences and the teams at the
top of the lesser tier is probably not as big as the gap between Premiere
League and Championship squads.
The
little guys ended up being big winners here, and not just the usual suspects
like TCU, Boise, Utah and BYU, but also teams like Navy, Troy, Central Michigan
and Hawaii that had extended runs among the big timers. That is a lot of money
coming into their Athletic Department coffers, which ostensibly would add on
benefits to their Olympic sports programs in addition to the football teams.
Were
the big boys held accountable for losing? One thing the EPL does have in common
with my experiment is the following: it is REALLY hard to drop down a level and
immediacy come back up. In the EPL, 80% of the time a relegated team stays down
for multiple seasons, similar to our numbers.
Miami,
Tennessee, Ole Miss, Arkansas, UCLA, Stanford, Texas A&M, Washington...those are BIG
names, and they all spent at least one season at the lower level. For the fan
bases of those schools, I would argue that relegation would have been a great
thing (in theory). Almost every one of these schools held on to a coach for one or two
seasons too long. Whether it is Al Golden, Houston Nutt, Derek Dooley, Rick
Neuheisel or Mike Sherman, this system seems likely to have weeded those
coaches out in a hurry.
Finally,
how did Miami end up?
I would argue playing in the Big 10 is probably more interesting than playing
in the ACC in terms of conference play. Assuming the FSU rivalry would continue
uninterrupted, which in this day and age is not a strong assumption, I see no
downside other than travel for fans. Bloomington, Indiana in November is no one's idea of fun.
It
would have sucked to have to watch Miami play in the Sun Belt for a year. BUT
Miami fans spent the last decade ranting and raving about mediocrity, an
unsupportive administration, mis-allocation of talent and resources...and were
mostly ignored.
Trying
to fill Landshark Stadium against Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State?
That might have gotten Donna Shalala's attention.
Losing
recruits because no one wants to play for a Sun Belt team? That might have
convinced Randy Shannon or Al Golden to change tactics.
Or
maybe, it would have convinced the administration to pony up for Gary Patterson
in 2007, or Brett Bielema in 2011. And think where we might be now if THAT had
happened.
No
Al Golden. We all win.
Thursday, December 22, 2016
College Football Relegation - 2015
This is the tenth and penultimate entry in my series on relegation in college football.
The year Al Golden met his
maker. Deliverance.
Relegations:
ACC-
UCF
Big
10- Syracuse
Big
12 - Kansas
PAC
12- Oregon State
SEC
- Louisiana Tech
Some
interesting names here, including UCF, winless and statistically one of the
worst teams in the history of college football. Syracuse and Kansas, 2 great
basketball powers, find themselves back in the Suck, and Louisiana Tech finds
its stay in the SEC to be a short one.
Promotions:
Conference
USA - Western Kentucky
MAC
- Bowling Green
Mountain
West - San Diego State
Sun
Belt - USF
At-large
- Cal (also in the mix: Memphis, Minnesota, Appalachian State)
Big
time to be a football fan in Northern Kentucky / Southern Ohio. Big ups! Also a
warm welcome back to USF and the Tampa market, or as we like to call it in my
household, America's UTI.
The
SEC gets Tampa into its footprint, while the dregs are divvied up as follows:
Western Kentucky to the ACC, Cal to the PAC 12, Bowling Green to the Big 10 and
San Diego State to the Big 12. Hard luck for both SDSU and the Big 12...in any
other year SDSU would have gotten its dream birth in the PAC 12, while the Big
12 is spread even further out, adding a small media market when the preference
would have been USF.
Wednesday, December 21, 2016
College Football Relegation - 2014
This is the ninth entry in my series on relegation in college football (you should read the preceding posts first).
The
first year of the College Football Playoff...think it is safe to say Miami, who
finished 6-7 in the ACC, would not have qualified.
SMU
continues our realignment by bailing on the ACC for Big 12, a natural fit for
the conference, along with Houston and a newly pursued Kansas, giving the Big
12 further presence in the Dallas and Houston markets after the departure of
Texas A&M as the conference looks to expand to the 12 it needs for a
championship game.
As
for the relegations:
ACC
- UConn
Big
10 - Bowling Green
Big
12 - SMU
PAC
12 - Washington State
SEC
- Vanderbilt
Karma
swings around on the Mustangs, who bailed on the ACC for the more competitive
Big 12, leaving behind a conference that included bottom-feeders UConn and
Virginia, both of whom could have provided a buffer.
Promotions:
Conference
USA- Louisiana Tech
MAC-
Toledo
Mountain
West- Colorado State
Sun
Belt- Arkansas
At-large-
Temple (also in the mix: Air Force, Memphis, Georgia Southern)
This
was the most boring year for promotions and relegations, with no big names (or
quite frankly even any other interesting names) other than Arkansas going
either way.
The
Big 10 grabs Arkansas to expand south and slap the SEC after celebrating Ohio
State's title, the PAC 12 takes in Colorado State, the SEC stays regional with
Louisiana Tech, the ACC grabs another Northeastern school in a big market with
Temple, and the Big 12 is (regrettably) left with Toledo, a school that makes
no sense for them despite a solid program.
This
year wasn't fun, so while we're here, let's do the Top 12 TV shows of 2016 (in no order):
Atlanta (FX) - Absolutely brilliant
American Crime Story: The People vs. OJ Simpson (FX) - Travolta's hairline alone...
OJ Simpson: Made in America (ESPN) - One of the best commentaries on race relations in America ever done
Quarry (Cinemax) - Feels like you are actually in 1972 Memphis, and the last episode might be the best 90 minutes of TV made this year
Veep (HBO) - The Queen stays The Queen
The Americans (FX) - Habitually underrated
Black Mirror (Netflix) - Starting to feel like a documentary
Game of Thrones (HBO) - The best movie of the year
Full Frontal w/ Samantha Bee (TBS) - Stepped up and took Jon Stewart's throne as a biting critic during this election season
Last Week Tonight w/ John Oliver (HBO) - Sam Bee was the most biting voice but Oliver was perhaps the hardest hitting, with an extra 8 minutes per night due to HBO's lack of ads
Stranger Things (Netflix) - Pure fun
The Night Of (HBO) - A true crime mini-series in which the "whodunnit" is the least interesting aspect
BONUS 8:
You're The Worst (FXX)
High
Maintenance (HBO)
Better
Things (FX)
Fleabag (Amazon Prime)
Catastrophe (Amazon Prime)
The Night Manager (AMC)
Insecure (HBO)
Broad City (Comedy Central)
Insecure (HBO)
Broad City (Comedy Central)
College Football Relegation - 2013
This is the eighth entry in my series on relegation in college football (I recommend reading the preceding posts first).
We start the year with some more conference realignment moves.
In
order to keep up the numbers, The Big East (henceforth known as the American
Athletic Conference, no longer to retain its status as a "Power"
conference starting next season) courts Memphis and Temple to join for its
final season.
Meanwhile,
Louisville, UConn and Cincinnati reach agreement to join the ACC for the 2014
season...although all 3 would have been in play for the Big 12 as well. Who ever would have though these three schools would have so many suitors?
As
for the actual play on the field, the ACC stands out for FSU winning the
championship, and the bottom of the conference being a remarkable shit show, as
SMU, FIU, Ohio, Troy and UCF bring up the rear of the conference in a
relegation battle that could only be described as very ‘ACC Coastal’.
In
the end, FIU loses. They finished as statistically the worst team in all of
college football.
The
ACC, ladies and gentlemen!
This
was the season when Miami started off 7-0 and then fell apart. Or as I know it,
"when I began to realize Al Golden was not worth a contract
extension and learned to love the bomb."
I think Miami would have been roughly as good as Nebraska that
season, so they probably would have finished with something like a 9-3 or 8-4
record, depending on whether they were in the Legends or Leaders division.
(Those
were actual division names. No one does pomposity like the Big 10.)
Anyway,
here are the relegations:
ACC
- FIU
AAC
(fka Big East) - Temple (San Diego State, Memphis and Arkansas
State are following them out the door with no conference to join)
Big
10 - Rutgers
Big
12 - Tulsa
PAC
12 - Cal
SEC
- Arkansas
Arkansas
and Cal are brand name programs, while Rutgers is in the biggest TV market.
Meanwhile, Tulsa ends an 8 year run among the big boys. Not bad. Not bad at
all.
Promotions:
Conference
USA - Washington State
MAC-
Bowling Green
Mountain
West- Texas Tech
Sun
Belt- Tennessee
At-large
- Marshall (also in the mix: Fresno State, East Carolina, Minnesota)
Some
big names here, as well as Marshall, with Rakeem Cato at quarterback.
In
the expansion draft, a major shakeup occurs: the ACC gets first dibs! They
don't waste it, nabbing Tennessee to become a bedrock program for a league
desperately in need of one.
(Well,
in theory. I would hope in this scenario Tennessee would hire someone more
inspiring than Butch Jones, aka SEC Golden.)
This
double whammy for the SEC turns out ok, as they scoop up Texas Tech with the
next selection, but it is pretty obvious that anyone would prefer the Vols. The
PAC 12 ends up with Washington State, the Big 10 gets Bowling Green and the Big
12 ends up with Marshall.
Monday, December 19, 2016
College Football Relegation - 2012
This is the seventh entry in my series on relegation in college football (I recommend reading the preceding posts first).
More
shakeups before the season.
Utah
and Colorado to the PAC 10. The goal here is pretty clear: these leagues want
to get to at least 12 teams in order to establish a conference championship
game, which is another property for the league to license to sponsors like Dr.
Pepper and TV networks like FOX. And, more teams means more games to air on PAC
12 Network (your home for early season Washington State vs. Idaho action!) and
to stream on their website. Amateurism!
Maryland
moves to the Big 10, and the Big 12 does some looting of its own, stealing
Tulsa from the SEC and lassoing an ascendant Houston from the Group of 5.
Here's
the new reality. The PAC 12, Big 10 and SEC are all very secure, while the Big
12, ACC and Big East are fighting for 2 spots. They all know it, and they are
going to start acting accordingly.
Meanwhile,
Miami plays its second season under Al Golden as a member of the Big 10.
There
was one good team in the Big 10 this season, Ohio State. They went undefeated
but were banned from the postseason. The rest of the conference was largely
mediocre, as evidenced by the conference championship game, a Wisconsin blowout
of Nebraska. Wisconsin, by the way, was 7-5 going into that game. Not exactly a
dominant conference champion.
I
hate to say it, but if Miami had been in the Big 10, Al Golden might have actually
looked decent, especially this season. I can't even imagine the contract
extension we would have thrown at Al if he had somehow managed to emerge from
this shit show and made the conference championship game. Has anyone ever
signed a 40 year extension? We could have been trendsetters.
Relegations:
ACC
- Southern Miss
Big
East - USF
Big
10 - Miami (OH)
Big
12 - Iowa State
PAC
10 - Colorado
SEC
- Kentucky
Iowa
State gets 1 year of respite and then is immediately sent back packing. THAT is the law of the jungle.
Southern
Miss has the worst year to year decline I saw in all of the research I did for
this project, falling almost 100 spots in F/+. They were bad in Conference
USA...I imagine they would have been worse in the ACC, although to be fair,
their competition would have included Troy, Ohio, FIU, Duke and Wake Forest,
none of which were among the Top 70 teams in the country in F/+.
I
found a picture of this competition:
Promotions:
Conference
USA - SMU
MAC
- Syracuse
Mountain
West - Utah State
Sun
Belt - Ole Miss
WAC
- UCLA
At-large
- Arkansas State (also in the mix: San Jose State, Kent State, Texas Tech)
Ole
Miss fights their way back again, and once again they are in the SEC. UCLA and
Syracuse, representing Los Angeles and New York, end up in the PAC 10 and Big
10, respectively, as the Big 10 corners the market in the Northeast with
Syracuse, Rutgers and Penn State, as well as Navy and Maryland. The Big 12 goes
into the Rocky Mountains with Utah State, while the ACC gets into the Houston
market with SMU. Arkansas State is left to the Big East, a conference which
later in the offseason announces the end of its run as a football conference
starting in 2014. The 2 events are ‘unrelated’.
Friday, December 16, 2016
College Football Relegation - 2011
This is the sixth entry in my series on relegation in college football (I recommend reading the preceding posts first).
The
year of conference realignment.
This
was a year of major changes to the fundamental landscape of college football,
almost entirely driven by TV. I was torn on how to handle. On the one hand, it
seems like expansion would be a death blow to the relegation/promotion
system...if a team gets booted but a conference is able to immediately bring
them back, then what's the point?
On
the other hand, more teams getting a shot at the top level is ultimately the
point of this process, so as long as 6 teams continue to get promoted, then
what does it matter? As long as the schools and the NCAA are alright with
diluting the talent pool, then why shouldn't I be?
Here
are the moves that were agreed to, all to take effect for the 2012 season:
Nebraska
to the Big 10
Pitt
to the ACC
West
Virginia to the Big 12
Mizzou
and Texas A&M to the SEC
Mountain
West and WAC consolidate to one conference
Syracuse
would have ordinarily agreed to move to the ACC, but given the fact that the
school was in the middle of its own sexual assault scandal at the time and is
currently a middling MAC team in this scenario, I have them being left alone.
Remember, the more people in the conference, the more teams split the TV money.
Meanwhile,
I have the following hypothetical moves occurring:
Illinois
agrees to re-join the Big 10 immediately.
The
ACC, in a state of desperation as rivals expand and its bottom third fills with
undesirable markets and teams, steals UCF, a move that serves to potentially
cripple the Big 12 when combined with Illinois' departure and...
Miami
agrees to move to the Big 10.
Look,
Miami never would fit in with a bunch of state schools in the Great Plains.
Meanwhile, the Big 10 features high caliber, historic athletics programs, its
own TV network, and schools like Northwestern, Michigan, Wisconsin, Navy and
Indiana that would appeal to Donna Shalala's academic sensibilities.
Pitt,
in light of the shake ups, pulls out of its agreement to join the ACC and
instead opts for the more natural geographic and ideological fit, the Big 10, to
re-establish old rivalries with Miami and Penn State.
And
just like that, the Big 10 establishes itself as the SEC's main rival and the
ACC and Big 12 are left in dire situations.
I
also have the ACC agreeing to terms to get Duke and Wake Forest back on board,
to at least lock down its "Tobacco Road" legacy and identity. If
you’re trying to start a channel, that’s a good pitch to distributors.
As
for the relegations:
ACC
- Troy
Big
East - East Carolina
Big
10 - Purdue
Big
12- Texas Tech
PAC
10 - Nevada
SEC
- Tennessee
Tennessee
and Texas Tech are big programs...the rest is the embodiment of mediocre.
Promotions:
Conference
USA - Southern Miss
MAC
- Rutgers
Mountain
West - Iowa State
Sun
Belt - Vanderbilt
WAC
- Arizona State
At-large
- NIU (also in the mix: Louisiana Tech, Houston, Arkansas State)
Some
prestige programs available here for the expansion draft. Arizona State had a
team of goons this season, coached by Dennis Erickson and lead by Vontaze
Burfict. They struggled to win games in the PAC 10 but with that talent in a
weaker conference, their F/+ ranking suggests an easier path to promotion.
Meanwhile,
people will forget this, but Vanderbilt was really good under James Franklin,
and Southern Miss was good enough that Larry Fedora ended up getting hired to
coach UNC.
In
the expansion draft the SEC kicks off by picking Vanderbilt. The Big 12
welcomes back Iowa State, as does the PAC 10 with Arizona State. The Big 10
gets a big school from a major media market in Rutgers, while once again the
Big East and ACC pick up the scraps...NIU and Southern Miss, respectively.
The
Big 12 might have gone for Rutgers in an attempt to claw back some TV
negotiating leverage, but I imagine that after getting looted before the
season, the conference would have required a prospective member to agree to
sign a non-exit agreement before agreeing to bring them aboard. Kind of like
when an NFL team refuses to draft someone first if they don't agree to contract
terms before the draft. And, given the Big12's weakness, I could see Rutgers
going full Jersey and refusing...they were holding out for the Big 10 the whole
time.
And
therefore, the Big 12 goes for the weaker program in Iowa State, although
publicly they would spin it as being glad to add an original member back into
the fold.
This
shit's chess, it ain't checkers.
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