The
year of conference realignment.
This
was a year of major changes to the fundamental landscape of college football,
almost entirely driven by TV. I was torn on how to handle. On the one hand, it
seems like expansion would be a death blow to the relegation/promotion
system...if a team gets booted but a conference is able to immediately bring
them back, then what's the point?
On
the other hand, more teams getting a shot at the top level is ultimately the
point of this process, so as long as 6 teams continue to get promoted, then
what does it matter? As long as the schools and the NCAA are alright with
diluting the talent pool, then why shouldn't I be?
Here
are the moves that were agreed to, all to take effect for the 2012 season:
Nebraska
to the Big 10
Pitt
to the ACC
West
Virginia to the Big 12
Mizzou
and Texas A&M to the SEC
Mountain
West and WAC consolidate to one conference
Syracuse
would have ordinarily agreed to move to the ACC, but given the fact that the
school was in the middle of its own sexual assault scandal at the time and is
currently a middling MAC team in this scenario, I have them being left alone.
Remember, the more people in the conference, the more teams split the TV money.
Meanwhile,
I have the following hypothetical moves occurring:
Illinois
agrees to re-join the Big 10 immediately.
The
ACC, in a state of desperation as rivals expand and its bottom third fills with
undesirable markets and teams, steals UCF, a move that serves to potentially
cripple the Big 12 when combined with Illinois' departure and...
Miami
agrees to move to the Big 10.
Look,
Miami never would fit in with a bunch of state schools in the Great Plains.
Meanwhile, the Big 10 features high caliber, historic athletics programs, its
own TV network, and schools like Northwestern, Michigan, Wisconsin, Navy and
Indiana that would appeal to Donna Shalala's academic sensibilities.
Pitt,
in light of the shake ups, pulls out of its agreement to join the ACC and
instead opts for the more natural geographic and ideological fit, the Big 10, to
re-establish old rivalries with Miami and Penn State.
And
just like that, the Big 10 establishes itself as the SEC's main rival and the
ACC and Big 12 are left in dire situations.
I
also have the ACC agreeing to terms to get Duke and Wake Forest back on board,
to at least lock down its "Tobacco Road" legacy and identity. If
you’re trying to start a channel, that’s a good pitch to distributors.
As
for the relegations:
ACC
- Troy
Big
East - East Carolina
Big
10 - Purdue
Big
12- Texas Tech
PAC
10 - Nevada
SEC
- Tennessee
Tennessee
and Texas Tech are big programs...the rest is the embodiment of mediocre.
Promotions:
Conference
USA - Southern Miss
MAC
- Rutgers
Mountain
West - Iowa State
Sun
Belt - Vanderbilt
WAC
- Arizona State
At-large
- NIU (also in the mix: Louisiana Tech, Houston, Arkansas State)
Some
prestige programs available here for the expansion draft. Arizona State had a
team of goons this season, coached by Dennis Erickson and lead by Vontaze
Burfict. They struggled to win games in the PAC 10 but with that talent in a
weaker conference, their F/+ ranking suggests an easier path to promotion.
Meanwhile,
people will forget this, but Vanderbilt was really good under James Franklin,
and Southern Miss was good enough that Larry Fedora ended up getting hired to
coach UNC.
In
the expansion draft the SEC kicks off by picking Vanderbilt. The Big 12
welcomes back Iowa State, as does the PAC 10 with Arizona State. The Big 10
gets a big school from a major media market in Rutgers, while once again the
Big East and ACC pick up the scraps...NIU and Southern Miss, respectively.
The
Big 12 might have gone for Rutgers in an attempt to claw back some TV
negotiating leverage, but I imagine that after getting looted before the
season, the conference would have required a prospective member to agree to
sign a non-exit agreement before agreeing to bring them aboard. Kind of like
when an NFL team refuses to draft someone first if they don't agree to contract
terms before the draft. And, given the Big12's weakness, I could see Rutgers
going full Jersey and refusing...they were holding out for the Big 10 the whole
time.
And
therefore, the Big 12 goes for the weaker program in Iowa State, although
publicly they would spin it as being glad to add an original member back into
the fold.
This
shit's chess, it ain't checkers.
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