Welcome to what is possibly the most confusing week of any team’s season: the week they play Clemson.
Clemson is kind of like the Alexis Dziena of the college football world. Every time I see Alexis on the screen, I have an internal debate. I know she is supposed to be hot; otherwise, she wouldn’t be on screen. Half the time she is gorgeous. However, the other half the time she is debatably attractive; some might say categorically unattractive. Sometimes, she looks like the freshman in high school who has potential but hasn’t realized her potential yet so she dates down to raise her self esteem. That, in a nutshell, is Clemson: Great one week, unfulfilled and kind of trashy the next.
Example: Clemson struggled to beat Middle Tennessee State, fell behind three early scores to Georgia Tech only to rally for the near-win, beat Boston College, lost a close game to TCU, lost to Maryland, and then beat Wake Forest.
In their two marquee games, they played well but lost. They beat BC and Wake, but there’s also the loss to Maryland. That makes them 2-1 in the games they were supposed to win and 0-2 in the ones they weren’t supposed to. They are more unpredictable than Zeta Tau Alpha.
Why is this confusing? Because I have watched them play and they are undeniably talented. They hit big plays and have two of the nation’s elite playmakers in Jacoby Ford and C.J. Spiller. They are the underdog in this one, and they have not won in that role yet; however, they have acquitted themselves well by keeping it close with Top 15 programs. They always play Miami tough; Miami, however, has responded remarkably well in the spotlight this season.
Miami is 2-0 in the games they were supposed to win and 3-1 as an underdog. However, they have played every game under the lights but the Virginia Tech game, and we all know how that turned out.
Like I said, confusing.
The game plan to beat the Tigers seems to be to force quarterback Kyle Parker to
beat you. He is completing less than 50% of his passes, and as many have said, is overly reliant on the big play. Further, Clemson has struggled to get Ford and Spiller the ball at times, and that cannot happen if they want to win.On defense, their front seven is fast and physical. Here is another area of confusion: Miami stood up very well to Oklahoma’s vaunted front 7 but struggled last week with UCF’s blitz. Clemson is closer to Oklahoma, but HAD to have seen the Knights tape. Again, I am absolutely at a loss as to my expectations.
And, as we seem to say every week, the game could come down to special teams, where the Tigers have Ford and Spiller lurking and the ‘Canes have struggled in coverage.
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Clemson Week!
BREAKDOWNS:
QB: Jacory has been great, but cannot turn the ball over here. He will be seeing man coverage, which will be easier to pick apart than the zones he has struggled at times to beat. Parker is struggling for Clemson, and if John Lovett is smart, Miami will be blitzing early and often. EDGE: Miami
RB: Stats may not say it, but Javarris James, Graig Cooper and Damien Berry have taken turns as highly effective runners for Miami. Clemson features the duo of Spiller and Ellington, both of whom are explosive. They also have former Miami recruit Jamie Harper in reserve. Spiller reminds me a lot of Michael Goodson from the 2007 and 2008 Texas A&M teams, who Miami was able to contain reasonably well. EDGE: Even
Receivers: Ford is explosive, but Parker is erratic. The ‘Canes, on the other hand, will have all hands on deck and ready to go with the return of Aldarious Johnson. EDGE: Miami
Offensive Line: Matt Pipho will struggle for the ‘Canes against the Clemson front, so the key will be helping by chipping with either a tight end or a fullback when the ‘Canes pass. Again, just like Oklahoma, the ‘Canes should be in max protect, as the receiving corps will be able to get open against man coverage (meaning the use of three receivers instead of five is just fine). EDGE: Clemson
Defensive Line: The Tigers feature DeQuan Bowers and Ricky Sapp, two elite defensive ends. The Hurricanes have plenty of good players but have been hit by the injury bug and have not been as productive as might be hoped. EDGE: Clemson
Linebacker: Both teams have solid units. Sean Spence and Colin McCarthy are playing like men on a mission for the ‘Canes, and Clemson is lead by Brandon Maye. EDGE: Even
Secondary: Miami is at an advantage because Parker struggles, but look for Ford to make a big play or two (unless Brandon Harris plays the best game of his career). Meanwhile, the Tigers are taking their man coverage against a quarterback with deadly accuracy and an arsenal of receivers. EDGE: Miami
Special Teams: Ford and Spiller have the Tigers in the Top 10 in the nation in both kick and punt returns. ‘Nuff said. EDGE: Clemson
Coaching: Shannon and crew actually have a pretty solid edge over Dabo Swinney and staff. EDGE: Miami
THIS WEEK’S GUEST
After Rachel broke the streak last week, I present to you Trent Mullins, born and bred Southerner who will try and keep the ball rollin’:
"As one of the 6 people who read this blog, let me just first and foremost express what an honor it is to be selected to make the celebrity pick this week for Stein on the Sidelines. I know he typically calls it a “guest” pick, but not this week.
Not many great matchups on the slate this week in CFB. College GameDay is in Provo for the TCU Horned Ladainian Tomlinson Went Heres vs. the BYU Big Love Morman Weirdo Cougars….Herbstreit could/should have 6 new wives by the time he leaves.
Needless to say, I think that Auburn v. LSU may actually be the best matchup of the week. I have been a resident in SEC country my entire life, and it is by far the best football conference in America. From the tailgates all the way to the radio shows. It’s not even close. Seriously. Sorry Stein on the Sidelines.
Before I make a pick and throw a score out there, let’s take a look at the recent history of the matchup and some fun facts
• Both schools share the Tiger as their mascot. Auburn for some reason also has a “War Eagle” as their mascot. It’s been explained to me as “Dude, the Tiger is our mascot but ‘War Eagle’ is our battle cry”….I guess that makes sense to them.
• Either Auburn or LSU has won at least a share of the SEC Western Division championship for five of the last six years
• The home team won every game from 2000-2007, until LSU beat Auburn on the road last year
• This has been one of the best games in the SEC the last 2 years. With both being decided by game-winning TDs in the waning seconds. Both by LSU.
• LSU had won 4,367 consecutive home night games before losing a tough one to Florida two weeks ago, and they should have lost to UGA the week before had the referees not intervened in one of the most heinously bad/unnecessary/WTF were they thinking calls I have ever seen.
• Auburn hadn’t had an impressive road W since 2007 until it beat Tennessee and Lane Kiffin (and his boner inducing wife) in Neyland Stadium 3 weeks ago…They have since lost 2 in a row, but they always play well in Baton Rouge.
I think the game is going to come down to QB play (like most games do). Jordan Jefferson and LSU certainly have more offensive weapons, but Jordan Jefferson is terrible. He is another perfect example of college coaches searching for the next Vince Young. This applies to Senator Tressel in Columbus as well. Just being big, black, athletic, and quick DOES NOT instantly make you a good quarterback. I’m sure Jefferson will have a fine career in Baton Rouge. He is still young. But as of now, I have to give the QB edge to Auburn and Chris Todd. 12 TDs v. 2 INTs. A certain upgrade from Brandon Cox and Kodi Burns. Auburn’s RB, Ben Tate, is no slouch either.
Now I’m going to completely contradict everything I just said and predict LSU the winner. And here’s why:
• Some of my friends (who happened to go to Auburn) made the journey to Baton Rouge in 2007 for the game. They are girls so they wouldn’t be able to tell me anything about the actual game itself, but they didn’t need to. I had heard enough. A 65 year old woman sitting in front of them, spent the entire game turned around in her seat heckling these poor girls with incoherent, Cajun, expletive laced tirades, all while throwing popcorn on them every few minutes. These are the grown-up LSU fans.
• Upon leaving the stadium after LSU’s late come-from-behind victory, they witnessed what is either the most hilarious or most horrifying thing I have ever heard of. I’ll let you be the judge. An LSU young fraternity man (Lets call him Jimbo), clearly excited about the game’s outcome, spots a 60-70 year old Auburn fan, holding hands with his wife, walking towards him. Clearly irate at the disrespect this old man was showing him by quietly walking to the car with his wife, Jimbo proceeds to walk in front of this couple take his Solo cup full of beer and chuck it at the elderly AU fans, striking the man upper chest/neck area, spilling beer all over them and yelling “F*** You!”….
4,367 consecutive home night games. Look it up if you don’t believe me. I think Jimbo’s a 7th year Senior this year. This one kicks at 7:30 PM…
LSU 17 – Auburn 10
EDITOR’S NOTE: Thanks Trent. However, here is where I have to disagree. I know the SEC is probably the best conference, but the fact that everyone considers it a foregone conclusion is ridiculous this season. I say this mostly because of the referees, which have completely taken away most of the conference’s credibility for this season.
Shall we take a look?
Warning, this will get lengthy.
Today the SEC suspended a referee crew based on their glaring miscues in two games. The two games were the matchups between Georgia and LSU and Florida and Arkansas.
In the Georgia/LSU game, the referees called a phantom celebration personal foul late with about a minute left on Georgia’s go-ahead score. The resulting longer kickoff meant LSU started with the ball at about midfield. Of course, LSU scored, won the game and preserved their undefeated record to set up a Top 5, marquee showdown with Florida 2 weeks later.
This was a bad call that changes the shape of the season for both teams. But it never had me questioning the legitimacy of the conference. Until I thought about it yesterday, after the SEC apologized for the SAME CREW’s mistake in the UF/Arkansas game I made fun of last column.
There were two bad penalties back to back, a personal foul called on an Arkansas lineman who was bracing himself from the charge a Gator lineman made at him (the one the conference apologized for) and a pass interference call which essentially hand delivered the Gators the score (admittedly, pass interference is the worst called penalty in sports and seems to always be made at the worst time, no matter the conference). This, coupled with the fact that Arkansas was called for 10 penalties compared to the Gators’ 3 (in a fast, physical SEC game) really got me thinking though.
Doesn’t it make sense for the SEC to have a bias toward their top 3 programs, which this year are Alabama, Florida and LSU? Don’t you think that the SEC officials probably are told ahead of time “if it’s close, lean toward the big guys”? This is the most corrupt conference in football at other levels, featuring pay-for-play scandals, street agents and felons playing for just about every team. The LSU win set up the marquee matchup two weeks later, and the Florida win kept the Gators the #1 team in the country.
Now think about this: what if those two borderline at best judgment calls don’t get made? Georgia and Arkansas both realistically win the games, as they had all the momentum to those points. After the LSU game, you would have Florida at 1, Alabama at 2 and the next best team, Georgia, right around 10th (assuming they would have moved up 7 spots, which seems to be the typical move for a win like that). Then, two weeks later Florida beats an LSU team probably ranked 11th or 12th, but a 10 point margin probably is not enough to keep them ahead of Alabama, who crushed Ole Miss, a Top 20 team at the time. Now you have Alabama #1, Florida #2 and the third ranked team as LSU, who is now probably right around #10 (remember, Georgia gets drilled by Tennessee…it wasn’t even close enough to think they might have won with the confidence built from the LSU win). Then, after Florida loses to Arkansas, they probably drop to right around 9 or 10. So you have Alabama as #1 (and rightfully so), LSU at #8 and Florida at #9. That is still the best conference in football, but how much better is it than, say, the ACC (a terrible conference in my opinion), who has Miami at #7 in this scenario, Georgia Tech at #10 and Virginia Tech at #14?
The scary thing is to think of all the close games in the SEC that may have been influenced one way or the other by questionable calls. The SEC is the best conference in the country, but if they use the referees to manipulate that ranking, will we ever know? The problem with conferences like the ACC and the Big East is that the teams cannibalize each other, and no one is immune. Well, if the refs in the ACC (who are terrible in every game anyway and usually err against Miami at the worst time possible) started protecting the interest of Miami, Florida State and Virginia Tech (the three traditional ACC powers) in every close game, don’t you think they would be Top 10 teams every season?
I’m not trying to say that there is a conspiracy; merely, I am stating that it seems rather convenient the way things have played out in what has so far been a mediocre season of college football, even for the SEC. And maybe the SEC isn’t as great as everyone thinks.
MY PICKS
Last week was better, as I went 5-3 to improve to 16-23 (ouch). I also went to 0-5 in upset specials. Here is this week’s carnage:
Alabama over Tennessee: This will be closer than you would think, like the UF-UT game. But Alabama is just too much football team for anyone right now.
Florida State over North Carolina: On Thursday night, the ‘Noles finally will show up and win an ACC game. On the road. Against a better team. I have no rhyme nor reason for saying this. Is this a mercy pick? This might be a mercy pick. It feels like it is…is FSU really that bad? I’m not even upset. I feel bad for them. Wow. Well, at least I will want to murder every student at their school again next season. It’s the little things…
Georgia Tech over Virginia: In what has actually become an important game. I think the annual Al Groh “Listen guys, we need to win a lot of games or I am getting canned and don’t think that means that you will keep your scholarship because you probably won’t” Campaign stalls here. By the way, is the ACC the 2nd best conference right now (knock on wood knock on wood knock on wood knock on wood knock on wood)? The Big 12 sucks outside of Texas and the hard luck Sooners, the Big 10 always sucks, the Pac 10 is really only USC and Oregon, and the Big East is Cincinnati and a bunch of interchangeable parts. Who saw that coming? I still think the ACC champion, whoever it might be, will lose at least once more. But this is a weird season.
Arkansas over Ole Miss: Sorry Bill (a little reverse jinx perhaps?).
Boston College Over Notre Dame: They said more Hail Marys this week…ba dum cha!
Oklahoma over Kansas: In the least upsetting upset ever. I don’t like this Oklahoma team and don’t even feel bad for them for losing Bradford for the season (who I like). But does anyone really think they’re losing this game? Also, I just picked four straight road teams. I noticed this as I was typing. Maybe I should be the one saying the Hail Marys…
USC over Oregon State: They got their token loss to a weakling out of their system already.
Texas over Missouri: Because their defense is just too good to justify the upset special pick. But don’t worry, it’s coming.
USF over Pitt: Again, no clue why, I’m just going with my gut.
Wake over Navy: Because I know you all care. Wake wins just to make Stein on the Sidelines more nervous about next week’s game.
UPSET SPECIAL: BYU over TCU
Yes, it’s a cop out. Not that big an upset. Picking the home team. But I need to break the five game losing streak for my upset special, and I am sick of everyone talking about TCU and Boise State. So why not kill 1.5 birds with 1 stone?
Always guard the inbound passer.
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