Wednesday, December 7, 2016

College Football Relegation - 2009

This is the fourth entry in my series on relegation in college football (read the rest in order if you want this to actually make any sense).

Miami had a talented, yet (unsurprisingly) underachieving squad in Randy Shannon's 3rd season, headlined by a season opening win over Florida State (which I wrote about in this very blog, I have no idea why I am still doing this, this is depressing).

Now in the Big 12, it would have been interesting to see how the Jacory Harris-led offense did in this wide open conference. Miami beat Oklahoma that year after Sam Bradford's injury, and we know that Texas was a bear of a team that made the national title game behind Colt McCoy. Other than that, it would have been fascinating to watch, as there were a lot of wide open offenses in the conference…Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, etc.

Kansas, checking in at a mediocre but respectable 54th in F/+ under the leadership of human bean bag chair Mark Mangino, ended up losing the relegation battle.

Relegations:

ACC - Buffalo
Big East - Rice
Big 10 - Air Force
Big 12 - Kansas
PAC 10 - Arizona State
SEC - Vanderbilt

Finally, the team that started this craziness goes down, as Vanderbilt breaks the state of Mississippi's vice grip on the bottom of the SEC, finishing slightly behind a Tulsa team in decline.

The ACC finally gets a break, when the team it is hoping to expunge actually sucks as Buffalo goes down, giving a bad Maryland team a break. Don't look now but this also guarantees a 3rd season of ACC football for Troy. Effing Troy.

Rice comes plummeting back to Earth and proves their at-large bid was a fluke, finishing nearly dead last in F/+, while Michigan narrowly holds off Air Force. Arizona State is the latest established power to fall victim to the PAC 10's remarkably adept job of bringing in new teams, as they are unable to beat out promoted sides Boise, BYU and Stanford to stay in the upper flight despite an F/+ of 66th...good enough for survival in most years.

Promotions:

Conference USA - East Carolina
MAC - Ohio
Mountain West - Texas A&M
Sun Belt - Mississippi State
WAC - Washington
At-large: Navy (also in the mix: Houston, Nevada, Minnesota)

While no one is going to be elated about getting East Carolina or Ohio to join their conference, there are no true dogs in this year's group of promoted teams; maybe some cannon fodder, but no true crap. Washington is an historic program, and Mississippi State and Texas A&M bring much to the table. Meanwhile Navy, despite their gimmick offense and recruiting disadvantages, has played good football for years and is located close enough to the Baltimore and DC markets / recruiting grounds to make them a nice little add on at the bottom of a conference.

The SEC gets Mississippi State back, the PAC 10 nabs Washington and the Big 12 reclaims the Aggies. The Big 10 goes for Navy to replace Air Force, the Big East gets East Carolina, and the ACC as always has to settle for the leftovers, this year being Ohio.

If you want to maintain your prestige as a conference in this system, you need 2 things to happen. First, the teams that are supposed to win need to actually win. Losing a marquee program is very difficult to make up for, because the pool of teams coming up is usually pretty thin. Second, you need a dominant team to emerge every season. When your teams cluster together in the second tier of the national rankings, you end up back filling your conference with teams like Ohio, Buffalo and Troy. Weak teams in weak markets that generate weak ratings and weak affiliate fees; if you have more than one of those teams at a time, it creates a generational problem for your league.

Think about it like the Republican Party. If you continue to fill your base with morons, eventually those morons become integral to your party. And then, even if you want them gone, it's too late.


We are 5 years into this thing, and the ACC isn't dead, but it is teetering over the abyss.


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