A Statement, One Way or the Other

Hello All,

Time to preview week 5 of the college football season.

Last week was a tough one, on many levels, for the ‘Canes.

This week is their chance to bounce back against another ranked opponent, at home, in primetime. Oklahoma is a very good team that borders on great when Sam Bradford is playing. They are not invincible, however, as BYU proved early in the season. Really, BYU won because they caught Oklahoma off guard with they physicality.

If Oklahoma watched tape of the Virginia Tech game, Miami should be able to do the same (really, Oklahoma has got to be licking their chops). Whether they do or not is really a matter of which defense shows up: the one that shut down Georgia Tech or the one that got mauled by Virginia Tech.

Here is the breakdown:

Quarterback: Jacory Harris is a very good quarterback, no doubt about it. However, he is still young and is prone to the mistakes that young quarterbacks make. He will make some this week against a wrecking crew defense that will bring the noise.While Harris has gotten a lot of publicity, Oklahoma’s Landry Jones has been playing very well for the Sooners, who have an explosive system that feeds off of its running game and puts up points in bunches. The x-factor here is Bradford. I will not believe he is out until I see it. If Bradford plays, the Sooners will probably win (as they did 2 years ago). If it is Jones, than Miami will not be at a disadvantage; the edge may be with the ‘Canes in this case, as this will be his first prime time test on the road against a fast defense. EDGE: EVEN (if Jones starts)/ OKLAHOMA (if Bradford starts)

Running Back: Graig Cooper and Javarris James are solid but proved last week that they are not game changers on their own. They need a good passing game to take pressure off. They also need better play calling, as both are better with a lead blocker and cannot beat the blitz to the edge, as they were being asked to do. As for Oklahoma, the 1-2 punch of Demarco Murray and Chris Brown is sure to give the Miami defense fits, particularly after Ryan Williams and Tyrod Taylor shredded them. EDGE: Oklahoma

Wide Receiver: Laron Byrd and Leonard Hankerson have emerged as go-to guys for Harris, and Travis Benjamin will have a better game on a dry track. I also think that Jimmy Graham will come up with a big play somewhere to atone for last week’s drops. Oklahoma is replacing their top 2 receivers and has not yet found a go-to guy. Jermaine Gresham will be sorely missed, as Miami has not been able to cover elite tight ends for years. EDGE: Miami

Offensive Line: If the talent is equal, which it probably is, then the edge goes to the team that will face less pressure. Miami was unable to create pressure with their front four last week. EDGE: Oklahoma

Defensive Line: Oklahoma is nasty on the front four, lead by Gerald McCoy (who I think is the best defensive player in college football), Jeremy Beal and Auston English. Miami is talented but banged up right now. Marcus Forston, Andrew Smith and Olivier Vernon have got to contribute this week or the Sooners will march up and down the field at will. Allen Bailey has been great but cannot do it all, and the depth issues last week really showed down the stretch. EDGE: Oklahoma

Linebacker: Miami’s unit, aside from Colin McCarthy, was unable to do anything last week. Sean Spence has got to hold the edge better against the run, and Daryl Sharpton really can only be relied upon in short yardage situations, where his lack of lateral speed can be hidden. Oklahoma is lead by Ryan Reynolds and is tough as always. It is quite impressive the job this team did in shutting out Tulsa’s juggernaut offense and a lot of that goes to the linebacking corps. EDGE: Oklahoma

Secondary: It doesn’t matter how good Oklahoma is here, because Miami has been terrible so far. EDGE: Oklahoma

Special Teams: Miami’s return game is not bad, but they cannot cover kicks and gave up a blocked punt last week. EDGE: Oklahoma

Coaching: This is a tricky one. While Bob Stoops has a great reputation, he has fallen short repeatedly in recent years against fast, talented teams (USC, Boise State, West Virginia, Florida, Texas, etc.). Randy Shannon and crew must adapt this week, because if they stick dogmatically to their gameplan as they did against Virginia Tech than it will be another blowout. Whipple and Lovett both must show more willingness to take what is given. That means creative offensive play calling (like the first two games) and more blitzing on defense. This is a tentative pick, but Oklahoma has the advantage until the Miami staff proves it is back to where it was against Georgia Tech. EDGE: Oklahoma

Now, that looks like a blowout. However, I think this will be a close game. Miami is not nearly as bad as they played last week, but this was always going to be the toughest of the first 4 games. Can Miami win? Yes. Will they? No clue.

POINT, COUNTERPOINT: Can Miami Score Enough to Win?

This week, I start a new segment with my buddy Justin Antweil of WVUM radio. We will both be answering the same question, touching on what I perceive to be the biggest questions facing the ‘Canes. I think it is a given that the Sooners are going to score, so Miami’s best chance to win is to go blow for blow with them and hold on at the end. So, the question is, can Miami’s offense bounce back?

Justin:
Miami Can Score! Sure, the Oklahoma Sooners defense has been stout. Coming off back to back shutouts after the stunning loss to BYU, this team is really motivated. The defense is playing with a chip on its shoulder, as it is getting overlooked because fans and analysts are more obsessed with the right shoulder of an injured player.
Come Saturday night at 8, No. 8 OU battles No, 17 Miami. The ‘Canes offense can exploit the OU defense, which has forced 4 picks and 2 fumbles. The key for the offense is to be aggressive. Mark Whipple strayed from his traditional game plan last weekend in soggy Blacksburg. Whipple must continue to implement the crossing routes and create constant movement that will cause confusion for the crimson and cream.
Whipple must utilize his weapons. Junior receiver Leonard Hankerson continues to thrive and haul in difficult catches every week. LaRon Byrd is proving he is worthy of wearing an orange and green 47. Dedrick Epps looks healthy after tearing his ACL in December. Sure, Jimmy Graham is a fan favorite, but let him catch balls in low pressure situations to get his confidence up. Don’t throw him in to the fire just yet.
Be aggressive and good things will happen.

Stein on the Sidelines:
I agree with Justin that the ‘Canes offense can score on this team. The question is which offense will show up.
Justin mentioned crossing routes and being aggressive. I agree with both. However, he doesn’t mention WHY we were able to be aggressive in the first two games: Jacory was standing in the pocket unpressured on almost every play. Whipple was using max protect schemes, using only 2 receivers as route runners on first down. Sure, there was a lot of motion and shifting, but in the end, at most 3 receivers were running routes while everyone else helped the o-line. The receivers ran intermediate and deep crossing routes and Jacory has a lot of time to find them open.
Last weekend, Whipple went away from the max protect and the o-line was exposed, most specifically Matt Pipho. The Miami o-line is solid but has some weaknesses. Virginia Tech found these weaknesses and Whipple never adjusted.
Justin is underselling the Sooner defensive front. As I said, the Sooner front 7 is big and fast and will be coming hard until Miami proves they can stop them.
Whipple needs to go back to the max protect, because if Jacory has time to throw, Byrd, Hankerson, Epps, Travis Benjamin, Thearon Collier and even Jimmy Graham can make big plays at any point in time.
The solution is not in the passing schemes, but the blocking schemes. Keep Jacory upright and Miami can score in bunches. The early pass will set up the run, which will set up play action, which will lead to touchdowns. However, if Oklahoma blitzes successfully early on, Miami will be in a hole and a repeat of Virginia Tech is very possible.
Max protect for max points.

Week 4 Picks in Review

I have been avoiding writing this section like I would avoid sharing a drink with George Christopher in “Bored to Death”.

My upset special barely missed, but I was off pretty much everywhere else. While it was a guest picker that picked Ole Miss, I was responsible for predicting Cal in “a close one” and Penn State “in a blowout”. Alas, I went 6-3, which is respectable. That brings me to 6-4 on the season. Guest pickers are 0-1.

This Week’s Guest

This week’s guest is close friend of Stein on the Sidelines, Steph. She is a native of Northern Virginia, so I asked for her opinion of the North Carolina- Virginia matchup in Chapel Hill. Take it away Steph:

"When Dan asked me to guest write for this blog my first reaction was to laugh in his face. Anybody who knows me at all will tell you that I have absolutely no business writing for a football blog. I don't really have any business even reading a football blog, considering most of the time I have no idea what is going on when it comes to sports.

However, since it's apparently my responsibility to make a prediction for the UNC v. UVA game, I'm going to go ahead and go with UNC. Mostly due to my intense dislike for the entire institution of UVA and anything associated with it. There are a variety of reasons I have problems with UVA.

First of all...southern Virginia. Enough said.

They also have the idea that twelve kids sitting around in a basement playing beer pong is a "really raging party."

But the worst part is the general student body. If you ever find yourself in a conversation with a kid from UVA it will probably go a little something like this:

"So, what school do you go to?"

"Why, I go to the *dramatic pause* University of Virginia," They will then wait expectantly for you to drop to your knees before them and/or begin to cross yourself. "Where do you go?" I

n my particular case, with the response "The University of Miami," this tends to be the reaction:"Oh. Mmm," they respond in what can only be described as a sympathetic tone.

They might even accompany this with an understanding nod, as if you had just admitted that you were partially mentally retarded. I think you all get the point. I've met kids from Yale, Stanford, and Princeton. I have a very close friend who goes to USC for film, one of the best schools in the country for his major. And NONE of them carry themselves they way that kids from UVA do. I really fail to understand how this mindset came to be. Yes, UVA is a good school. Yes, it is difficult to get into. But it's not Ivy League. It's not MIT.

I guess you could say I'm not the biggest fan. So yeah. Go Tarheels. Or is it Tar Heels? Whatever."

Admirable for her brevity and absolute willingness to allow personal prejudices to cloud football predictions, folks.

My Picks

West Virginia over Colorado: After watching Colorado get smacked by both Colorado State and Toledo, I have no hope that they will be able to stop Noel Devine. None. Zilch. Nada. If I were a gambler, this would be my stone cold lock of the week. It won’t even be close.

Michigan over Michigan State: I’m going to go out on a limb here and say Sparty will keep it close, maybe even lead in to the 4th quarter, and then blow it. The only question is how. My prediction: they will try a fake field goal when up 6 and throw an interception on the play. Michigan will score 14 unanswered and run away with it.

Georgia over LSU: I don’t even really consider this an upset. LSU has not been very impressive, and they have to travel Between the Hedges for a big game with the Bulldogs, who have quietly been piling up points. I see this being a good game, but Georgia gets back in the national discussion with a win. This will also make it 5 straight weeks a top 5 team loses.

Georgia Tech over Mississippi State: After the Bulldogs almost knocked off LSU, they will be too drained to take on Tech’s physical offense. Tech by two scores.

Ole Miss over Vanderbilt: This was actually a tough call (sorry Bill). Jevan Snead needs to get going and should this week. But Vanderbilt has become a sneaky tough place to win on the road, and Snead will have his hands full. I think Ole Miss has too much talent, but keep an eye on this game.

USC over Cal: I was going to pick Cal here in a bounce back game, but then we all heard about the tragic accident involving Stafon Johnson. I think USC wins this one for their teammate, and I wish him a very speedy recovery.

FSU over Boston College: FSU needs the win, and typically when a team this talented needs a win they find a way to get it. It will be tough on the road, but the FSU speed will juuuust pull one out. Also, this is one of the strangest choices for a College Gameday site yet.

NC St. over Wake Forest: This Wolfpack team is quietly playing well, and Wake just lost to BC.

Clemson over Maryland: Clemson bounces back, but Kirk Herbstreit is right: they don’t play well when it isn’t a TV game. Ralph Friedgen would love to catch them napping, but his team just isn’t there yet.

Tennessee over Auburn: I wanted to go with Auburn on the road, but my dad talked me out of it. Lane Kiffin needs an SEC win, and his defense just stopped Florida’s spread for most of their game. Auburn is good on offense, but Tennessee ain’t Ball State, and Auburn ain’t Florida.

UPSET SPECIAL: Indiana over Ohio State

My dad thinks I am an idiot for making this pick. I am more afraid about the ramifications of this pick backfiring than E was when he was waiting to hear if he has Drama’s STD. However, I am sticking by it. I think that Ohio State is playing too conservatively even by their standards, and I think that Indiana got a taste of upset in last week’s near-win against Michigan. Call me crazy, but never call me a coward. You could also call me 0-2 in upset special picks so far.

Always guard the inbound passer.