Really, this week’s game does not need much of a lead-in…but here it goes anyway!
Miami finds itself in a familiar spot. Last season, Miami was 7-3 after losing a couple of close ones and a not-so-close one early. They needed 2 wins to go to the ACC Title Game. They promptly lost both of the games and ended up playing in the Emerald Bowl, which carries so little significance that I literally just had to look up the name of the game because I had forgotten it. And this is coming from the guy who remembers that Kyle Cobia was an 82 for speed on NCAA College Football 2003.
Anyway, Miami heads in to this one 7-2, needing to win out to make a respectable bowl game (I am PRAYING for a Miami vs. Notre Dame Gator Bowl matchup…long shot, but I can dream, no?) and set themselves up well for next season. And let’s be real…who the hell knows what to expect from Miami? Or North Carolina? Or any team in this freakin’ conference???
I always compare this point in a team’s season to the fantastic sequence in Almost Famous (one of the top ten movies of all time, by the way) when Stillwater’s plane is about to crash.
Everyone on the plane decides to blurt out their deepest, darkest secret…they only have a few minutes left to live, so why the hell not? It is messy at best. By the way, put this blog down and go watch the freakin’ movie if you haven’t seen it. Seriously.
The manager hit a guy with his car.
The drummer is gay.
And the real bombshell…the lead singer banged the guitarist/superstar’s wife back in the day.
And then, the plane rights itself and everyone lives. The look on everyone’s face is priceless. Everything is in the open, and now they have to live with it. They have to adjust.
Miami had their “Oh Shit, We’re About to Die” moment when they lost a game they
should’ve won against Clemson (taking them out of both conference title and BCS pictures) and then trailed by two scores late against Wake Forest.Everyone just prepared for a second straight loss and pretty much had moved on. But then, Miami won. The plane righted itself.
So now, the question is what happens next? That’s one of the best parts of the movie, but also the point where the movie analogy completely stops working…it is left up to the viewer to decide what happens to the characters. Personally, I think that Stillwater bounces back with a strong second album, called something like “Death by Airplane”. They become huge stars and the rest is history. Kind of like Nirvana. However, there is also the possibility that Russell Hammond leaves the band after the post-Cover of Rolling Stone honeymoon ends and he realizes his wife banged his lead singer; Hammond becomes a later version of Eric Clapton…supremely talented, cannot stay with one band to save his life.
So there are the options. Last week against Virginia, the ‘Canes looked like the win against Wake combined with the shorter practices combined with Randy Shannon going Michael Corleone on a team that had pissed him off one time too many had them playing the type of football elite teams play late in the season.
So have they taken that next step to become an elite team, or are we merely right back to where we were last season? Virginia is tough to guage a team by, especially because they are not very good. North Carolina, on the other hand, is playing well as of late and has a MENACING front seven (more on this in a bit). And here’s where it gets confusing…Virginia whooped UNC!
To say that Miami owes Butch Davis a beating is an understatement. I still remember that Butch bailed on the ‘Canes 2 WEEKS before National Signing Day in 2001. 2 FUCKING WEEKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! After he said he was coming back. Well, needless to say, I do not hold him very highly. In fact, I’m not a big Butch fan. I was 13 at the time and knew he had done something completely wrong.
Davis also indirectly triggered the collapse of the Miami program; Ken Dorsey, Ed Reed and Joaquin Gonzalez marched in to Paul Dee’s office the next day and demanded that Dee hire Coker, then the offensive coordinator, instead of making the offer to Dave Wanndstedt. I do not know which is worse…that we ended up with Coker or that the other option was Wanndstedt. Sure, we won the title and actually went back-to-back…but I could’ve coached that damn team and won a title. As we all know, the long term effects of this hire would be felt, and I cannot help but think that things would have played out differently had Butch not left us dangling in the wind like he did.
Wow, what was I talking about? Oh, right, UNC. Their front seven is crazy good. Look at some numbers: they rank 3rd in the nation with 61 tackles for loss, 5th in Pass D, 8th in Run D and 5th in Total D. Gulp.
Now, it is also prescient to keep in mind that Miami beat Oklahoma and should’ve beat Clemson, both of whom came in with vaunted front sevens. However, this game is at 3:30 (a bad timeslot for the ‘Canes this season) and on the road. And Butch has owned the ‘Canes since returning to UNC. This just reeks of a setup. I guess this is why they don’t play the games on paper, however. And I guess we will see if Miami is a flameout or a team with some staying power.
BREAKDOWN:
Quarterback: T.J. Yates has been a game manager that has struggled with interceptions. He played poorly against Duke, well against Virginia Tech and poorly against FSU his last three times out. Poorly against Duke? Allen Bailey is licking his chops…Doc Walker would say something like “Allen Bailey is a straight up BAWLA…a CYBORG, ladies and gentleman…T.J., you on ya own SOULJA, ‘cus the TERMINATA sees you and he is LOCKED IN…HOLLA BACK!” Meanwhile, Jacory is Jacory. He will throw a bad interception or two, will make a “Holy Shit, did he just do that?” play or two, and somewhere in the middle throw for a couple scores and manage the offense. EDGE: Miami
Running Back: UNC lost leading rusher Shaun Draughn for the season, but last week Ryan Houston carried 37 times for 140+ yards. Here’s hoping he is tired. Miami’s stable looked deep last week, and if Javarris James is healthy to boot, then Miami should be able to establish some semblance of a running game to set up the playaction. Remember, it was James that went off against Oklahoma’s front seven. EDGE: Even
Receiver: This is Carolina’s team weakness after losing Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Tate. Greg Little has been solid and nothing more (although he is a matchup problem), while big play guys Erik Highsmith and Jehranie Boyd haven’t gotten the ball much. Meanwhile, Miami’s Leonard Hankerson is having a big year, and it seems like every week someone new is his leading sidekick. EDGE: Miami
Offensive Line: Both offensive lines have been solid, although I think Miami’s is going to have their hands more full. I can’t call it either way, to be honest. EDGE: Even
Defensive Live: Well, UNC has probably one of the top 4 or 5 lines in the nation. Robert Quinn is an All- American at end, and Marvin Austin is a WEREWOLF at tackle. Oh, and Quinton Coples has 6 sacks. Just putting that out there. Meanwhile, Miami’s line has not consistently gotten to the passer…EDGE: Carolina
Linebackers: Which puts their linebackers in a hole trying to cover way too much ground for too long a time instead of roaming free and hunting the ball…EDGE: Carolina
Secondary: Which leaves their corners either isolated on go-routes against bigger receivers for too long or behind the play after the receiver runs a route in to the middle, where they know linebackers can’t cover them. EDGE: Carolina
(Of course, all this is moot if the defensive line is getting pressure like they were last week OR if Carolina does the “we’ll just run all game and try to wear them out” thing, which hasn’t worked well except for when Virginia Tech did it, which was a disaster.)
Special Teams: The great equalizer in a close game. A part of me is happy that UVa got those two blocks. Now, Coach Pannuzzio has gotten his ass handed to him by Shannon and there will be greater emphasis on this unit this week, which is good because UNC excels in Special Teams. In addition to Bruce Carter blocking kicks, watch out for D’Anoris Searcy in the return game. And hope that Miami gives Bosher enough time to punt, covers his kickoffs well and Thearon Collier or someone can break off a big return. EDGE: Carolina
GUEST PICKER
This week, Francis is back by popular demand to pick the ESPN “Game of the Week” between Notre Dame and Pitt.
"Hello there all of you out there in Stein-Blog-Nation-Land, Dan asked me to do the guest pick for this week. As usual I will oblige him.
Dan asked me to do the pick for the Notre Dame-Pitt matchup. After around just 3 minutes of research I realized that this was going to be difficult to do from a football stand point. This game is kind of like an Athletics-Royals game in the last week of August. It just doesn't matter. For instance, Notre Dame just flushed their season down the toilet by losing to Navy. Charlie Weis will most undoubtedly lose his job because of this, and rightfully so. Pitt on the other hand is playing non-conference in this game and their hopes of a BCS bowl lie in the Big East, and more than likely the December 5th matchup with Cincinnati.
Then it hit me.
ESPN's college football studio crew consists of a one Lou Holtz, and a Mark May. Lou, as you all know, once coached at Notre Dame and gave up 4th and 43. Mark May is a total asshole, who also went to Pittsburgh. One can only envision the tedious banter and fake trash talking between these two the whole day. Not that I would miss their insightful analysis, but fake banter and chummy attitudes make me want to drive up to Bristol and cut some brake lines (and for the record I would actually do this, but I'm broke and Connecticut is a good 1500 miles from my house).
So I flipped on the television and within 15 minutes of flipping to ESPN I heard that classically awful drum fill from the beginning of Saturday Night Football (which by the way was clearly created on a computer, and not an actual human marching band) and my worst fears were realized. Pitt-Notre Dame is the marquee matchup. Even the marketing taglines could see this game is about nothing. "Every team has a coach to play for" flew over b-roll Jimmy Clausen tape. Umm, no, that was last week against Navy, now your coach is the lamest duck in sports, thank you.
So I leave it to you Steininites, whom do you want to win? Lou Holtz or Mark May? If Lou Holtz wins then we get to hear him talk about the Notre Dame spirit, and then probably compare Mark May to apple farming, and then get side tracked about how he almost caught this raccoon this one time at Arkansas and how it saved their football season. If Mark May wins, we will most assuredly have to look at his stupid, gloating face as if Jesus was a Pitt alumnus (whooooo class of '78!). He will then probably talk about the non-football aspects of the victory, completely irrelevant things like how crappy Notre Dame's academics are, and how difficult MTH 083 was at Pitt. No one is a less gracious loser than Marky Mark.
In fact, it probably doesn't matter because after all that ESPN will be back at fellating Tim Tebow or some hilarious SEC matchup. Just remember, Go Gators, and if you're not first, you're last."
Well, I guess he isn't picking a winner. Really, it doesn't matter. Well done Francis, and please, no one cut their brake lines (wink wink).
MY PICKS: Last week I went 6-1. That’s right. I’m a BAAAAAD man. AND I predicted Navy to beat Notre Dame. Well, it is sad that a 6-1 spot only brings me to 32-34 (1-7)... but I can feel a storm brewing….
Rutgers over USF: Rutgers at home on Thursday night. This won’t come back to haunt me…
Cincy over WVU: I am convinced Cincy could plug Billy Stein in at quarterback and win.
Georgia Tech over Duke: Convincingly. They will not let this one get away.
Wisconsin over Michigan: Easy
Ole Miss over Tennessee: And, like Billy said, Greg Hardy got hurt. Also, I changed this pick after the Great Knoxville Heist of 2009.
Wake over Florida State: I think it is hilarious that people think that Bobby Bowden is suddenly lost on a football field. He has been acting that way in pressers for years, people. When he is in the game, he knows the score. He knows the situation. There are reasons to get rid of him, but the transcript from some press conference that DOESN’T involve Bowden going off on black people like Jimmy the Greek is not among those reasons.
Ohio State over Iowa: And Iowa makes its annual run to the Sun Bowl.
Cal over Arizona State
TCU over Utah
UPSET SPECIAL: Stanford over USC
I just have a feeling. And no, not the annoying kind like the Black Eyed Peas.
Always guard the inbound passer.
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